The 2024 version of Hot Right Now will typicallyinclude three sections:
- Current Auctions:A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
- Roster Adds:Analysis of players with high add% changes.
- Hot Performers:Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.
The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.
Current Auctions
Charlie Condon – 146 current auctions
You can read all about the third pick in the 2024 draft on The Board and in Eric Longenhagen’s Draft Recap where he wrote:
I do worry about Condon’s hit tool (I assume none of the other pundits had him lower than I did), but holy cow if he has even a 40 bat, he’s going to hit for absurd power there.
“There” being Coors Field. It’s always important to consider your team situation and how long you’re willing to wait for a player your rostering to show up in the big-leagues.
Nacho Alvarez Jr. – 110 current auctions
With the injury to Ozzie Albies, the Braves have called up the 21-year-old from AAA to play second base. He was listed as the Braves fifth-ranked prospect in Eric Longenhagen’s June report, where he wrote:
Alvarez’s report continues to read like a Yandy Díaz starter kit. He has legit 80-grade plate discipline and chases less than 20% of the time (including with two strikes), but he’s too bulky to play shortstop and lacks the prototypical power of a corner infielder.
While I’m trying to be mindful of the impact his elite plate discipline will have on his output, it’s tough to project an impact future for a third baseman who seems pretty likely to slug below .400 across his years of team control.
Playing time is everything at this early stage and if the Braves are willing to give him an extended look, he is certainly worth keeping an eye on and stashing for $1 if you can get away with it.
Hayden Birdsong – 63 current auctions
In his most recent start, Birdsong collected 12 strikeouts for the Giants at Coors Field in only six innings. While he has given up at least two runs in each of his five starts, his WHIP (1.22) and ERA (3.55) sit at respectable marks. His Stuff+ measurements are nerve-wracking for both analysts and hitters. Analysts see a 74-grade fastball and think, yikes! Hitters see a nasty 120 slider, 113 curveball, and a 149 changeup and think, yikes! His curveball has a 66.7% K% on the year. Can he continue to rely on secondaries like these as a starter? Who knows? But, without a fastball to get him through tough times, he hasn’t gone more than six innings in any one start. He’s been sent back down to single-A for now, but that may just be a roster move that keeps him close to the big-league club for another call-up. Regardless, Alex Cobb and Robbie Ray are working their way back form injury and Birdsong may need to either spend more time in the minors or take up a role in the bullpen.
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Roster Adds
Travis Bazzana – Add% Change (7 Days) – 40.7%
Again, you can read all about the first pick in the 2024 draft on The Board and in Eric Longenhagen’s Draft Recap where he wrote that Bazzana’s strengths are in “Every Offensive Tool/Skill”. That sounds pretty good. But, how much dinero are you willing to throw at a current college student in fantasy baseball? Don’t let the excitement of the one/one make you go crazy. Yes, it’s been rumored that Bazzana could be fast-tracked to the big leagues, but how much is that worth salary-wise? It all depends on your long-term strategy. Good luck.
Juan Yepez – Add% Change (7 Days) – 40.1%
Jeff Zimmerman wrote:
He is keeping his .390 AVG (.455 BABIP, 15% K%) up but providing little power or speed.
…and Jeff is writing from a roto-perspective. Yepez has eight doubles this season and his .585 SLG (.459 xSLG) makes him appealing in Ottoneu points leagues. He has a 7.96 P/G mark currently, though he has only played in 14 games. He doesn’t have a ton of major league playing time to go off of, but if he can continue to make contact and shed some of his free-swinging ways off his approach, he could be worth a look in most leagues. His average salary is $3, but you may be able to sneak in below that. He is 1B and OF eligible.
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Hot Performers
Stats reflect the last 14 days for both hitters and pitchers.
Lawrence Butler – (15.2 P/G)
At 4.19 P/G this season, Butler is playing way above his expected level. Chad Young wrote about Butler’s red flags in his All-Streak break “Hot Right Now“, but Butler picked up right where he left off before the break. In his five games since, he has accumulated 23 plate appearances with 12 hits, three doubles, two triples, and a home run. He is the definition of “Hot Right Now”. The only question is, how long will he stay hot and what does he look like when he cools off?
Ezequiel Tovar – (12.3 P/G)
Tovar currently has a 10-game hit streak going back to July 9th. It has come with four doubles and four home runs. He may be hot, but his season P/G mark sits at 5.34 and he’s slashed .280/.306/.473. The 22-year-old has increased many of his power metrics, including maxEV and HardHit%, each year he’s been in the big leagues. This could be the breakout year many have been waiting for.
Dylan Cease – (9.3 P/IP)
In each of Cease’s last two appearances he has recorded 10 or more strikeouts, given up no runs, and allowed only one hit. His slider has been as good as ever with a 20.7% SwStr% and the pitch has a near 40% K%. These two dominant starts came against the Braves and the Guardians, so it’s not as if he was facing weak opponents. He has, however, had several blow up games this season including one against the Rangers where he didn’t make it through the fourth inning and gave up six earned runs. His four-seamer has given up seven home runs this season and his overall HR/9 has jumped to 1.11 on the year. He’ll look to continue lowering his ERA in the second half, which currently sits at 3.76.
Logan Gilbert – (6.1 P/IP)
Gilbert had an odd start against the Angles on Tuesday night where he gave up five runs but only one of them was earned. Regardless, he still gathered eight strikeouts and issued only one walk. Gilbert does not have any pitches in his arsenal that have accumulated negative pVals this season. His K% has been decreasing as the season has gone on and he has shown some velocity decrease in both his cutter and four-seamer, but certainly not enough to sound any alarms. He is on pace for 219 innings pitched this season and leads the MLB with 139 so far.
