St. Cloud, MN Forecast and Weather Discussion (2024)

Wednesday, July 3, 2024 3:25 AM

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

Drier Day Yesterday....

Monday's storm drifted into western Ontario yesterday (seeMid-tropospheric water vapor loopfrom Colorado State satellite slider). The cold front was pushed into eastern Minnesota, so the bulk of the heavy rain fell in Wisconsin, Iowa, and a piece of southeastern Minnesota overnight (set number of frames to at least 200 on theCollege of DuPage north central US radar loop). It took until afternoon to get rid of the low clouds in central Minnesota (seeShortwave Albedo loopfrom Colorado State satellite slider), so high temperatures were again in the upper 70's with those persistently uncomfortable middle 60's dew points (seeNWS: last 72 hours of St. Cloud observations).

But Late Day Storms Scattered to Our West....

However, there were a number of scattered showers and thunderstorms late yesterday afternoon into last evening from Montana into the Dakotas (set number of frames to at least 200 on theCollege of DuPage north central US radar loop). The residual amounts of moisture (dew points still in the 50's, green, into Alberta on theUCAR hourly dew point chart) along with help from both the southwestern lobe of the Ontario low and the next low over British Columbia (see counterclockwise circulation center on theMid-tropospheric water vapor loopfrom Colorado State satellite slider) mean that any dry period in Minnesota will be short-lived.

...So Scattered Showers Late This PM

A lot of the showers to our west have dissipated from late evening on (set number of frames to at least 96 on theCollege of DuPage north central US radar loop), but they will redevelop this afternoon and evening. So, I have a 1 in 3 chance for a shower or thunderstorm late this afternoon into this evening. Otherwise, we have a better chance of seeing more sunshine today, so highs will climb into the 80's with dew points likely in the upper 50's to middle 60's. That will again make it feel quite humid, especially with more modest west winds.

Much Better Chance for Showers and Thunderstorns on Fourth, Especially Afternoon and Evening

The rain chances will be on the increase tomorrow. We will see those scattered showers and thunderstorms tonight and again tomorrow morning. By afternoon, however, the BC low will get close enough to Minnesota to strengthen the flow of the really sticky air (dew points in the upper 60's, dark orange, and beyond on theUCAR hourly dew point chart) that are now fueling the storms in Iowa and Wisconsin. And, as the low pushes into the eastern Dakota tomorrow afternoon, the pocket of cool air aloft will increase the temperature dropoff between the ground and the middle atmosphere to allow widespread showers and thunderstorms to develop tomorrow afternoon and continue through at least the evening. The chance for 'conventional' severe weather (hail, damaging winds, tornadoes) is small (only ranked category 1 of 5 by theNWS Storm Prediction Center), mainly since we will have a lot more clouds around and won't get into the hot and really sticky air at the ground. The biggest threat once again is the chance for heavy rainfall (potential for over an inch of rain in the southern half of Minnesota; see Day 2 on theNWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast) on top of the already saturated ground. So, the NWS WPC has ranked the threat of enough rainfall to cause flooding as category 2 of 3 in the southern half of Minnesota (yellow area on the Day 3NWS WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook). PM outdoor festivities will also be affected by the likelihood of lightning strikes in thunderstorms, which many don't take that seriously, but a number of people are injured by lightning each year (about20 deaths per year in the USon average).

Some places, like Lake Minnetonka,have already moved their fireworks off of Thursday, because of the thunderstorm likeliness.

Cooler With On-and-Off Showers Friday

Unfortunately, the frequent shower pattern will continue throughout the long holiday weekend. Tomorrow's storm will drift across Minnesota on Thursday night and ease into Wisconsin on Friday, but that will be close enough to set off more occasional showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms on Friday, especially during the midday and afternoon. We will likely have more persistent clouds, but the winds will turn to the northeast, so it will be cooler. While tomorrow's highs will be able to climb into the middle or perhaps upper 70's despite the clouds, Friday's high is likely to be near 70 or even a bit cooler.

Weekend: Continued Cooler Than Average With Some Chance for Showers Each Day

The Thursday-Friday system goes by Friday night, but a series of storms from the northeastern Pacific will continue to push through the Canadian Rockies and along the US-Canadian border in the Northern Plains and Great Lakes into early next week. That will keep at least a chance for showers and a few thunderstorms around through the weekend. I can't pin down the threat of heavier rainfall, but the NWS WPC has at least a chance for significant rainfall in much of Minnesota on Saturday through Monday (see Days 4-5 on theNWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast). The current computer indications seem to favor Saturday night and Sunday afternoon, but I wouldn't trust that timing at this point. This will likely mean a lot of clouds around, but some sun may be possible at times. Still, I would expect temperatures to be cooler thanaverage(highs between the middle 70's or around 80) through the weekend.

More of the Same First Half of Next Week

The parade of lows looks like it could continue on the northeastern flank of the hot high, which will relocate from Texas, Arkansas, and Louisiana now (seeMid-tropospheric water vapor loopfrom Colorado State satellite slider) to the Southern and perhaps Central Rockies for much of next week. That would continue the frequent chance of some showers and favor cooler than average to average temperatures through the first half of next week. If the high would expand northeastward, much warmer air could try to push into Minnesota, but I don't see that happening at this point.

Jamaica and Grand Cayman Island to Be Pounded by Hurricane Beryl

Today,Hurricane Beryl(drag screen until you can see South America on theMid-tropospheric water vapor loopfrom Colorado State satellite slider) is expected tohit Jamaica and the Cayman Islandsas acategory 3 or 4 storm. These areas, along with southern Hispanola,are expected to see huge rainfall amounts as well. Tomorrow, the storm will still be strong and will hit the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and Belize. Top winds arecurrently 145 MPH. The first brainpans are already hitting Jamaica (see close-up loop fromUniversity of Wisconsin SSEC zoom-in). And,reports from the southeastern Caribbean Islandsshows the devastation in the aftermath of Monday's strike.

The forecast gets more uncertain after Beryl hits the Yucatan Peninsula. The storm is expected to move out over the Gulf of Mexico, where the water is very warm. However, there will be some brisk upper-level winds, which could interfere with reintensification. On the other hand, the Gulf of Mexico water temperatures are very warm. The track of the storm also is uncertain. The same storm affecting Minnesota over the weekend will change the upper-level winds near Beryl to more southeast-to-northwest with more of a south-to-north turn nearby. That makes the track of the storm very uncertain as it approaches either northeastern Mexico or the extreme south Texas coast (note that the range of the computer predictions for the storm center hitting the western Gulf of Mexico coast varies by over 500 miles; seecomputer forecast tracksfrom tropicaltidbits.com). This far in advance, there is no guarantee that any of these tracks are right. So, the two major weather stories for the approaching long weekend will be the progress of Beryl and the development of a major heat wave from the southwestern US deserts into much of California.

June: From 2023 Drought to 2024 Floods

The June 2024 St. Cloud weather summary is now out. It points out the extreme contrast of this May and June 2024, producing the heavy rains that produced flooding in many parts of Minnesota, to last May and June 2023, which was the driest May-June combination in St. Cloud records and the 3rd hottest June. June 2024 helped produced the third wettest December through June in St. Cloud records. It was also the 14th straight warmer than average month. The previous heating season (July through June) was the warmest heating season in St. Cloud records.

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"

Wednesday 7/3/2024:A slight chance for an early shower. Otherwise, partly sunny, very warm, and uncomfortably humid, but not quite as windy. Maybe some scattered late day showers and thunderstorms.High: between 80 and 85.Heat indices between 85 and 90. Winds: SW 8-15 MPH, becoming NW in the afternoon.Chance of measurable rainfall: 20% in the morning, 30% in the afternoon.

Wednesday Night:Partly clear, light winds, and slightly more humid. Areas of dense fog possible. A chance for a scattered shower or thunderstorm.Low: between 60 and 65.Winds: NW 5-10 MPH evening, light late.Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Thursday 7/4/2024:Clouding up and cooler, but still uncomfortably humid. Scattered morning showers and thunderstorms. Showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Uncomfortably humid.High: between 72 and 77.Winds: NE 8-15 MPH.Chance of measurable rainfall: 40% in the morning, 80% in the afternoon.

Thursday Night:Showers and thunderstorms likely through midnight. Occasional rain or showers in the early morning hours.Low: between 57 and 60.Winds: NE-N 8-15 MPH.Chance of measurable rainfall: 80% through 2 AM, 40% after 2 AM.

Friday 7/5/2024:Mostly cloudy, cooler, and uncomfortably humid. Occasional showers. Perhaps a thunderstorm.High: between 67 and 72.Winds: N 8-15 MPH.Chance of measurable rainfall: 60%.

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come From Every Home on the Block to Hover Around My Head"

Friday Night:Showers ending during the evening. A bit drier, but some areas of fog likely late at night.Low: between 57 and 62.Winds: NW 5-10 MPH, diminishing late.Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet"

Saturday 7/6/2024:Early fog, then partly sunny, warmer, and still uncomfortably humid. A chance for a late day shower or thunderstorm.High: between 78 and 83.Winds: SW 5-15 MPH.Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Saturday Night:Perhaps some evening showers and thunderstorms. Areas of fog possible late at night.Low: between 57 and 62.Winds: SE 5 MPH.Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Sunday 7/7/2024:Lots of clouds with a good chance of mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Still uncomfortably humid.High: between 77 and 82.Winds: SW 8-15 MPH.Chance of measurable rainfall: 40%.

Extended:Average to cooler than average temperatures with frequent rain chances much of next week???

Forecast Confidence(10 - "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 - "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 7 Wednesday, 6 Wednesday night, 8 Thursday and Thursday night, 6 Friday, 4 Friday night, 3 Saturday, 2 Saturday night and Sunday.

Yesterday's High: 78°F;Overnight Low (through 3 AM Wednesday): 65°F
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Melted Precipitation (through 3 AM Wednesday):None; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 3 AM Wednesday): None

Next Update:Thursday, July 4, 2024 6 AM

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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